Why EV Ownership Is a Ticking Time Bomb（為何擁有電動車是個定時炸彈？）
Why EV Ownership Is a Ticking Time Bomb（為何擁有電動車是個定時炸彈？）
#電動車 #電動車爆炸 #鋰電池 #鋰離子電池 #氟化氫 #氯化氫 #氰化氫 #一氧化碳 #二氧化硫 #甲烷 #氟化物
來源：Prepare For Change（為改變做好準備）
By Edward Morgan - October 16, 2024
作者：愛德華摩根 - 2024 年 10 月 16 日
Written by David Solway,
由 David Solway 撰寫、
It is now, or should be, common knowledge that electric vehicles—cars, trucks, buses, bikes, scooters—under conditions of even low humidity or water damage, are prone to catching fire, owing to the unstable nature of the lithium-ion battery
現在或應該成為常識的是，由於鋰離子電池的不穩定特性，電動汽車（汽車、卡車、公共汽車、自行車、踏板車）即使在低濕度或水損壞的情況下也容易起火
As Chris Morrison writes at The Daily Skeptic, EVs are known to explode “with the force of a bomb blasting super-heated jets of flame, melting and decomposing nearby structural materials including metal and concrete, and sending vast amounts of toxic fumes into any enclosed atmosphere.”
正如克裡斯·莫裡森 （Chris Morrison） 在 The Daily Skeptic 上所寫的那樣，眾所周知，電動汽車會“以炸彈的威力爆炸，噴出過熱的火焰射流，熔化和分解附近的結構材料，包括金屬和混凝土，並將大量有毒煙霧送入任何封閉的大氣中”。
Jammed into underground parking garages or packed in ferries, EVs are harbingers of almost unimaginable disaster—ecological and safety menaces to which the ‘Net Zero’ fanatics among our political leadership are comatosely indifferent.
電動汽車被塞進地下停車場或塞進渡輪，預示著幾乎難以想像的災難——我們的政治領導層中的“淨零”狂熱者對生態和安全威脅漠不關心。
We have witnessed lethal battery explosions in South Korea and elsewhere with significant loss of life. QBE Europe reports that such fires are increasing at a worrisome rate and explains:
我們目睹了韓國和其他地方發生的致命電池爆炸，造成重大人員傷亡。QBE Europe 報告稱，此類火災正在以令人擔憂的速度增加，並解釋說：
“Lithium-ion fires are the result of thermal runaway, where batteries start to irreversibly overheat, usually due to impact damage, over-charging or over-heating…
“鋰離子火災是熱失控的結果，電池開始不可逆地過熱，通常是由於撞擊損壞、過度充電或過熱......
The resulting explosive fire incidents are significantly more energetic [than ordinary fires], causing extensive damage, and potentially injury or even death.”
由此產生的爆炸性火災事故 [比普通火災] 的能量要大得多，造成廣泛的破壞，並可能造成傷害甚至死亡。
They cannot be readily put out and will often re-ignite.
它們不能輕易撲滅，並且通常會重新點燃。
We read of an electric truck loaded with lithium batteries catching fire, closing down the Port of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and the Vincent Thomas Bridge.
我們讀到一輛裝滿鋰電池的電動卡車起火，關閉了洛杉磯港、長灘和文森特湯瑪斯大橋。
We learn that Audi’s signature e-tron GT has been recalled multiple times over fire concerns. A massive fire at a Rivian Plant crisped over 50 vehicles. In 2022, Hurricane Ian caused 20 electric cars to catch fire “after they flooded with salt water, creating hazards for first responders.”
我們瞭解到，奧迪的標誌性 e-tron GT 因火災問題已被多次召回。Rivian 工廠的一場大火燒毀了 50 多輛汽車。2022年，颶風伊恩導致 20 輛電動汽車“在被鹽水淹沒後”起火，給急救人員造成危險。
We have seen the damage that Hurricane Helene caused in Florida and other states, involving the volatile nature of EVs as well. According to Florida Politics, “Gov. Ron DeSantis urged owners of electric vehicles in Florida on Wednesday to drive them to higher ground to avoid them being exposed to seawater.”
我們已經看到了颶風海倫對佛羅里達州和其他州造成的破壞，也涉及電動汽車的波動性。據佛羅里達州政治報導，「州長羅恩·德桑蒂斯 （Ron DeSantis） 週三敦促佛羅里達州的電動汽車車主將它們開到高地，以避免它們暴露在海水中。
A Toronto apartment complex has just banned all electric vehicles, including electric bikes, motorbikes, unicycles, hoverboards, mopeds, Segways, skateboards, and scooters, citing fire risk. These are only a few of the instances that are on record.
多倫多的一座公寓大樓剛剛以火災風險為由禁止所有電動汽車，包括電動自行車、摩托車、獨輪車、氣墊板、輕便摩托車、賽格威、滑板和踏板車。這些只是記錄在案的幾個實例。
It is to be expected that EV advocates—government officials, industry executives, interested buyers, and committed owners—will claim that internal combustion fires far outnumber their electric competitors, which does make statistical sense.
可以預料的是，電動汽車的宣導者——政府官員、行業高管、感興趣的買家和忠誠的車主——會聲稱內燃機火災的數量遠遠超過他們的電動競爭對手，這在統計上確實有意義。
Editor’s note: there are statistically more ICE fires than EV fires because EV’s represent only a small fraction of the total number of vehicles. If numbers were equal, EV fires would be many times more than ICE fires.
編者註：從統計數據來看，內燃機火災比電動車火災多，因為電動車僅佔車輛總數的一小部分。如果數量相同，電動車火災將是內燃機火災的許多倍。
There is significantly more of one than of the other. According to various reports (e.g., International Energy Agency, Regie de l’énergie du Canada, etc.), EVs make up anywhere from only five percent to 18 percent of the market, depending on the country.
一個明顯多於另一個。根據各種報告（例如，國際能源署、Regie de l'énergie du Canada 等），電動汽車僅佔市場的 5% 到 18%，具體取決於國家/地區。
In any case, it is a sales number that is now markedly declining as consumers and major companies are turning off EVs.
無論如何，隨著消費者和大公司關閉電動汽車，這個銷售數字現在正在顯著下降。
As I have previously pointed out, Ford Motors is backing away from EVs and reconditioning an EV plant to build high-demand Super Duty trucks. Nissan’s EV earnings dropped 99% in the first quarter of the year.
正如我之前指出的那樣，福特汽車正在退出電動汽車，並改造電動汽車工廠以製造高需求的超級任務卡車。日產的電動汽車收益在今年第一季度下降了99%。
General Motors delayed (perhaps indefinitely) the new Buick EV and a new electric truck factory. Hertz Global Holdings is selling off 20,000 EVs from its fleet. The Financial Post reports that Volkswagen has cut EV output in Germany as demand craters.
通用汽車推遲（也許是無限期地）新款別克電動汽車和新的電動卡車工廠。赫茲全球控股公司 （Hertz Global Holdings） 正在出售其車隊中的 20,000 輛電動汽車。《金融郵報》報導稱，由於需求下降，大眾汽車已削減德國的電動汽車產量。
Indeed, The Telegraph reports that Germany suffered a “spectacular 70pc drop in electric car sales.” EV automobile manufacturer Stellantis has laid off thousands of Michigan workers. Italy has called for a review of the European Union’s coming internal combustion car ban, claiming that the “absurd” policy was ideologically driven and ignored the realities of the market.
事實上，《每日電訊報》報導德國遭遇了「電動汽車銷量銳減 70 個百分點」。電動汽車製造商 Stellantis 已裁減數千名密西根員工。義大利要求重新審視歐盟即將實施的內燃車禁令，聲稱這項「荒謬」的政策是意識形態驅使，忽略了市場現實。
But even if this were not so, EVs would continue to pose a much greater danger than ICE vehicles. I have only seldom heard of a gas-powered vehicle aflame, yet EV fires seem to be a regular event, giving off clouds of toxic emissions and burning almost uncontrollably.
但即使不是這樣，電動汽車將繼續構成比內燃機汽車更大的危險。我很少聽說汽油動力汽車起火，但電動汽車起火似乎是經常發生的事情，散發出有毒排放物的雲，幾乎不受控制地燃燒。
They are a source of ecological havoc whose effects will grow increasingly evident despite government mandates and media silence.
它們是生態破壞的根源，儘管政府要求和媒體保持沉默，但其影響將越來越明顯。
Although I have written about the EV hazard on several occasions for this site and others, the issue’s implications recently came home to me with renewed force. Embarking on one of the myriad ferries that ply between Vancouver, the Sunshine Coast, and the Gulf Islands, I noticed a late-model EV among the hundreds of cars, trucks, and tankers making the crossing.
儘管我已經多次為這個網站和其他網站寫過關於電動車危險的文章，但這個問題的影響最近以新的力量重新出現在我腦海中。踏上往返於溫哥華、陽光海岸和海灣群島之間的無數渡輪中的一艘，我注意到在數百輛汽車、卡車和油罐車中，有一輛最新型號的電動汽車。
There were certainly more, but one was enough to get me thinking. A single “thermal event” would cause a near-unquenchable fire, release volumes of toxic emissions, and set off explosions in the confined hold of the ship that would likely result in its foundering and the death of many passengers from fire, poisonous fumes, and drowning.
當然還有更多，但有一個就足以讓我思考。一次「熱事件」就會引起一場幾乎無法撲滅的大火，釋放出大量的有毒物質，並在船的密閉船艙內引發爆炸，這可能導致其沉沒，許多乘客死於火災、有毒煙霧和溺水。
This was a nightmare vision that I sensed would one day translate into the real world. I also knew that very few of the officials in charge of the ferry service would accept the very real possibility of such a cataclysm.
這是一個噩夢般的景象，我感覺到有一天會轉化為現實世界。我也知道，很少有負責渡輪服務的官員會接受這種災難非常真實的可能性。
If such an event should occur, denial and subterfuge would be the response. The cause would have to be located elsewhere. The combination of inertia and vested interest, bureaucratic sluggishness, and profiteering avarice would constitute nothing less than criminal indifference.
如果發生此類事件，則回應將是否認和詭計。原因必須位於其他地方。惰性和既得利益、官僚主義的懶惰和牟取暴利的貪婪相結合，將構成犯罪的冷漠。
I was encouraged to read that the Norwegian shipping firm Havila Kystruten, which operates car ferries around the coast of Norway, has banned the transportation of electric, hybrid, and hydrogen vehicles. And with good reason.
我讀到在挪威海岸經營汽車渡輪的挪威航運公司 Havila Kystruten 已禁止運輸電動、混合動力和氫能汽車，這讓我深受鼓舞。而且有充分的理由。
Neil Dalus of the freight insurer TT Club points out:
貨運保險公司 TT Club 的 Neil Dalus 指出：
“During a lithium battery thermal runaway event… significant amounts of vapour can be produced in many common supply chain scenarios, including ships’ holds and warehouses.”
“在鋰電池熱失控事件期間......在許多常見的供應鏈場景中，包括船艙和倉庫，都會產生大量的蒸汽。
The potential toxic effects, as noted, can be and have been fatal. “Drivers, stevedores, ships’ crews and first responders attempting to control the blazes encounter what might appear to be smoke but is in fact a mix of toxic gases, generated quickly and in large volumes.”
如前所述，潛在的毒性作用可能是致命的，而且已經是致命的。“試圖控制大火的司機、裝卸工、船員和急救人員遇到的可能是煙霧，但實際上是有毒氣體的混合物，迅速大量產生。”
The freight insurer warns that the failure of these batteries can occur “with such speed that there is typically no time to react.”
這家貨運保險公司警告說，這些電池的故障可能會“以如此快的速度發生，以至於通常沒有時間做出反應”。
Such disasters may not be as improbable as we may have thought. They are just waiting to happen. Mike Gallagher, CEO of Ports Australia, warns of the ferocity of such fires:
這樣的災難可能並不像我們想像的那麼不可能。他們只是在等待發生。澳大利亞港口公司首席執行官邁克·加拉格爾 （Mike Gallagher） 警告說，此類火災的嚴重性：
“You can’t put them out. So you can imagine it on the street if you can’t put them out, imagine them on a vessel out at sea or in a port.”
“你不能把他們趕出去。所以你可以想像一下，如果你不能把它們撲滅，在街上想像一下它們在海上或港口的船上。‘’
In 2022, the Felicity Ace, a large cargo vessel carrying 4,000 cars, including EVs, not-so mysteriously caught fire and sunk. In July 2023, the Dutch vessel Freemantle Highway, with a cargo of 3,783 vehicles, including 498 EVs, burst into flames, the fire starting “in the battery of an electric car,” according to a crewman.
2022年，一艘載有4,000輛汽車（包括電動汽車）的大型貨船 Felicity Ace 並不神秘地起火並沉沒。2023年7月，載有3,783輛汽車（包括498輛電動汽車）的荷蘭船隻Freemantle Highway起火，據一名船員稱，起火始於“電動汽車的電池”。
The National Transportation Safety Board has also advised of the inherent risks. EVs are ticking time bombs.
美國國家運輸安全委員會 （National Transportation Safety Board） 也就固有風險提出了建議。電動汽車是定時炸彈。
Of course, engineers and technicians are working to improve the safety co-efficient of the lithium battery, but success is years in the future—if at all. Moreover, the electrical grid cannot sustain the drain on its capacity, which in itself is enough to put paid to so ill-advised a project.
當然，工程師和技術人員正在努力提高鋰電池的安全係數，但成功需要幾年後才能實現——如果有的話。此外，電網無法承受其容量的消耗，這本身就足以為如此不明智的專案付出代價。
Whatever way we look at it, the EV revolution is premature and appears destined to failure.
無論我們怎麼看，電動汽車革命都為時過早，似乎註定要失敗。
One should keep in mind that many professional firms and the media will almost always gloss over the danger and the lethal radius of these fires in the same way that “fact-checkers” almost always manipulate rather than check the facts.
人們應該記住，許多專業公司和媒體幾乎總是掩蓋這些火災的危險和致命半徑，就像“事實核查員”幾乎總是操縱而不是核查事實一樣。
Believe them at your peril. The risk factor is not susceptible to standard data analysis.
相信他們的後果要自行負責。該風險因素不易受到標準數據分析的影響。
Indeed, the purring statistical distributions we find all over the Net with respect to the comparative dangers of driving an EV and an ICE vehicle, assuring us we have no need to worry about EVs, depend on a selective approach to weak or imperfect data arrays.
事實上，我們在網路上隨處可見關於駕駛電動車與內燃機車危險性比較的統計分佈，保證我們不需要擔心電動車，這些都取決於對薄弱或不完美資料陣列的選擇性處理。
The statistical apparatus that is usually brought to bear upon the events in question is not only starved of appropriate data but is meant to distort our perception of the situation. It cannot accommodate the scalene and empirical properties of certain sorts of phenomena—in this instance, what we might refer to as “crisis events.”
通常用於處理相關事件的統計工具不僅缺乏適當的數據，而且旨在扭曲我們對局勢的看法。它無法容納某些類型現象的斜角和經驗特性——在這種情況下，我們可以稱之為“危機事件”。
One EV fire can sink a ship; the damage is incalculably greater than any number of regular vehicles can give rise to. How do we compute so disproportionate a probability?
一次電動車火災可以擊沉一艘船；這種傷害比任何數量的普通車輛所能造成的損失都大得不可估量。我們如何計算如此不成比例的概率？
We are dealing with a category error. One apple, so to speak, may be far more septic than innumerable oranges. As the old saw goes, “Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say.”
我們正在處理一個類別錯誤。可以說，一個蘋果可能比無數個柳丁的敗血症要嚴重得多。正如老話所說，「在你仔細考慮它們沒有說什麼之前，不要相信統計數據所說的。
“Companies flourish in a free market economy not by serving bureaucrats but consumers, the true ‘bosses,” writes Jonathan Miltimore at The Epoch Times, condemning the “hamfisted” misallocation of government resources.
“在自由市場經濟中，公司蓬勃發展不是通過為官僚服務，而是通過為消費者服務，他們是真正的'老闆'，”喬納森·米爾蒂莫爾（Jonathan Miltimore）在《大紀元時報》上寫道，他譴責了政府資源的“笨拙”錯誤分配。
“Fortunately, the centrally planned EV Revolution now appears dead in the water, or at least in full retreat.” One hopes he is right.
「幸運的是，中央計劃的電動車革命現在看來已經死了，或者至少是完全撤退了」。希望他是對的。
Although governments everywhere continue to push for increased “adoption,” the time has plainly arrived to end EV mandates, wasteful government subsidies and incentives, and the political, corporate and media propaganda campaigns leading to the inevitable economic, ecological and life-threatening debacles everyone will come to regret.
儘管各地政府都在繼續推動增加“採用”，但結束電動汽車授權、浪費的政府補貼和激勵措施以及導致不可避免的經濟、生態和危及生命的災難的政治、企業和媒體宣傳活動顯然已經到來，每個人都會後悔。
The time is now, before the treasury collapses and the fatalities begin to mount up.
現在是時候了，在國庫崩潰和死亡人數開始增加之前。
Source: https://principia-scientific.com
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